Home » Predicting Recessions: A New Approach for Identifying Leading Indicators and Forecast Combinations by Chikako Baba
Predicting Recessions: A New Approach for Identifying Leading Indicators and Forecast Combinations Chikako Baba

Predicting Recessions: A New Approach for Identifying Leading Indicators and Forecast Combinations

Chikako Baba

Published May 9th 2014
ISBN : 9781283556507
ebook
32 pages
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 About the Book 

This study proposes a data-based algorithm to select a subset of indicators from a large data set with a focus on forecasting recessions. The algorithm selects leading indicators of recessions based on the forecast encompassing principle and combines the forecasts. An application to U.S. data shows that forecasts obtained from the algorithm are consistently among the best in a large comparative forecasting exercise at various forecasting horizons. In addition, the selected indicators are reasonable and consistent with the standard leading indicators followed by many observers of business cycles. The suggested algorithm has several advantages, including wide applicability and objective variable selection.